There’s greenwashed mining ahead. Lots of it.
A couple of MIT Technology Review stories caught my eye recently. They were based on a study looking at how much copper, aluminum, and other materials will be needed for the transition from fossil fuels to renewables. The finding: Under dozens of future scenarios, there’s a sufficient supply to meet projected demand (Wang et al, 2023).
Policy-minded researchers will find plenty of inspiration in the study’s details. For instance, “many scenarios, most notably the [Shared Socioeconomic Pathways], do not separately break down offshore versus onshore wind capacity or solar [photovoltaic vs. concentrated] capacity within the broader wind and solar categories.”
The MIT Technology Review articles were informed by climate justice concerns, mentioning the lithium mining set to commence in Thacker Pass on the Nevada / Oregon border. Yet the implications were made clear: We’re likely to have far more mining across the U.S. and planetwide over the next few decades.
Fighting FUD, Cheering “Cleantech”
In one sense, these types of stories do a great public service, countering some of the latest fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) talking points from renewables opponents. There’s always a new one, like:
“Renewables will never achieve viable efficiency”; or
“Renewables will never be cost-competitive”; or
“INTERMITTENCY!”
In this instance, the question is “do we even have enough resources to switch to renewables?” The Wang et al study gives us a data-backed answer to that question. Still, headlines involve edits. So while many media outlets reported on the “We have enough” part of the story, brevity apparently forbid others from mentioning the “environmental justice” part, much less the “impending mining frenzy” part.
Because a frenzy is what we face. The rapid renewables buildout that Green New Deal fans like me want? It’s going to involve a lot of mining. Merely cheering “cleantech” isn’t the most sustainable move. Not if we’re grandfathering in unsustainable energy and resource usage like one-car-per-person and Hummer EVs and the fossil fuel industry.
A Different Perspective on Mining
Many C-suiters will consider themselves well briefed just to have read MIT’s bullet points. They might think something about “sustainable mining practices” and move on. Many worldly technophiles will breeze past a study by the Climate + Community Project mentioned in Technology Review. Some might have seen it mentioned in a Grist story, or on energy industry site Canary Media, which republished it.
Behold: Achieving Zero Emissions with More Mobility and Less Mining (Riofrancos et al, 2023)
Covering much of the same “What If?” ground as Wang et al, Theofrancos et al are less about “Can it be done?” and more about “How should it be done?” It feels like leadership. Here’s an of-the-moment discussion between lead author Theofrancos and Volts podcast host David Roberts:
Decolonizing to Decarbonize
Vague notions of “sustainability” are giving us business-as-usual + renewables. We’re poised for a mining frenzy that will be greenwashed as doing the right thing. And we’re feeling bounded by what’s perceived as possible now in this political moment.
The Biden administration can’t even utter the phrase “just transition”, only “clean energy economy”. It’s an important distinction for the U.S. and other countries in the global north. A clean energy economy evokes windmills and EVs, sourced close to home when possible. The just transition, in contrast, is redistributive, and will need to address inequality. That includes the global north’s annual extraction of $2 trillion from the global south. Given that we’re all still singing the globalization song, that’s more than most leaders want to take on.
But not all leaders. Consider the vision described by Fadhel Kaboub, recently appointed Under-Secretary-General for Financing for Development at the Organization of Educational Cooperation. Consider the idea of energy sovereignty instead of endless conflict over energy security. And imagine a less frenzied approach to sustainable prosperity.
Of possible interest: Degrowth, Doughnuts, and/or Dough?, “HANDS OFF the DRC. Hands off Africa.”
